The New York Mets
I grew up on Long
Island, New York. I used to take the subway from the
Babylon train station in to Flushing Meadow. Although I saw
a bunch of games at Shea during my teenage years with my
brother, we almost never missed Banner Day. My brother and
I, with our mother's help, would fabricate simple
paint-on-bedsheet banners in order to get the privilege of
going on field and parading around in a big loop between
games of the double header. That was when you could still
bring in a cooler to the stadium. We brought our lunches
and sodas had a great time.
Anyway, I thought
I would put together a list of the best 20 New York Mets
players of all time. I've been reading a lot of Bill James.
He's the most influential baseball writer of the era and
probably the most influential baseball writer in the
history of the game. He is so thought provoking. I've read
a book called
Win Shares
and the upshot of my reading is that Bill James has
put so much thought into developing an objective
system for relative ranking of baseball players that
it is very difficult to argue with the method or
results.
So, I'm going to
use the Win Shares ranking system for my analysis as it was
delineated in Bill James' The New Historical Baseball
Abstract, published in 2001. The system was explained on
pages 339 to 358 in that book. The rating system is split
into six categories of which one category won't apply to my
analysis. Below are the categories considered in the
ranking system and a brief explanation of what each
category means.
To qualify to be
considered as one of the all-time best New York Mets you
need only one qualification; you have to have played at
least parts of five seasons as a Met.
1) Career Win Share total as a Met
What is a Win Share? To quote page 2 of Bill James'
Win Shares,
"Win Shares are, in essence, Wins Created. Win Shares
takes the concept of Runs Created and moves it one
step further from runs to wins. This makes it
different in essentially two ways. First, it removes
illusions of context, putting a hitter in Yankee
stadium on equal footing with a hitter from Colorado,
and putting a hitter in 1968 on equal footing with a
hitter from 2000. Second, the Win Shares system
attempts to state the contributions of pitchers and
fielders in the same form as those of hitters." James
then embarks on more than 100 pages of mathematical
and statistical discussions of how he got what he got.
Great stuff. I'm a fan.
Players are
assigned a Win Share total that is commensurate with their
contributions toward making their team win- as a hitter,
pitcher, and fielder. The bigger the Win Share assigned to
the player's contribution, the more he had to do with
creating wins for the team. A Win Share total of 40 or more
for a specific year is an exceptional, historic year. A
player garnering a Win Share total of 30 and above had an
MVP / Cy Young Award-type year. A year between 20 to 30 Win
Shares is an All-star-type year. A year of approximately 15
win shares is a run-of-the-mill year for a full-time
player. Below 15 Win Shares would be below par for a
full-time player.
Adding all these
Win Shares up from a player's career, dividing by 10, then
taking the harmonic mean between that number and 25, and
you have the first component of the player analysis to
determine the best 20 Mets of all time.
2) The player's Win Shares in his three best years as a Met
You find the player's three best Win Share years and
average them. This is the second part of the analysis. This
part of the analysis is designed to enumerate how good a
player was when he was at his best. For example, at his
best did a player average 15 Win Shares per season, or 25?
Big difference.
3) Five best consecutive seasons as a Met
You find all the Win Share totals for a player throughout
his career as a Met, locate his five best consecutive
seasons, and determine the average value for those five
years. This is meant to get an indication of sustained
performance level.
4) Career Win Shares per season - Not Applicable
This is the one Bill James categories that does not apply
to my analysis. This was designed by James to analyze
players who played in 154-game seasons along side of
players who played in 162-game seasons. Of course, all Met
players played 162-game seasons so we needn't bother with
this category.
5) The time line adjustment
Bill James points out that players, on the whole, have
gotten better over time. Although this is something hotly
disputed by some, it is not disputed by me. I have no doubt
that a well-conditioned average player of today is bigger,
stronger, quicker, and smarter than a player of 1880. This
factor accounts for the betterment of players with time and
thus accounts for the difference between a Met of 1962 and
a Met of 2009.
6) The subjective factor as a Met
To keep this category simple I am considering two things
here: on-field leadership and World Series play. I am
judging on-field leadership as follows; if you led the Mets
in Win Shares for a specific year, I'm calling that
on-field leadership and a player will be awarded 2 points
to his ranking total. For World Series play, if a player
had a great World Series they get 2 points onto their
ranking total, a good World Series gets 1 point. That's it.
Subjective rankings can cause mischief, so I am trying to
keep it measurable and real.
Let's take an example. Tom Seaver's ranking breaks down
like this:
25.78 (Career Win Share total) + 31 (Win Share average of
best three seasons) + 28 (average of best five consecutive
years) + 14.4 (Time Line adjustment) + 16 (Subjective
Factor) = 115.18 total ranking points. Tom Seaver ranks as
the #1 best Met of all-time. This makes lots of sense to
me.
Click here for the 20 best Mets players of all
time.